The State of the Article 6 Carbon Market 2027
The annual market report of the Paris Agreement carbon market: volumes, prices, demand, supply and outlook. Read the prospectus for the second edition, planned for COP32 in Ethiopia in 2027, incorporating the Article 6 Network Global Survey.
Second edition planned for COP32 · Ethiopia, 2027
Purpose
The market report of the Paris Agreement carbon market
The State of the Article 6 Carbon Market is the Article 6 Network’s annual market report: the reference for how much the Paris Agreement carbon market trades, at what price, between whom, and where it is heading. It reads Article 6 as a financial market, the world’s only globally compliant carbon market.
The first edition will launch at COP31 in Türkiye in November 2026. The second edition is planned for COP32 in Ethiopia in 2027, incorporating the Global Survey results. Each edition answers one question for investors, buyers and host governments: is Article 6 investable this year, and what would make it more so?
Demand by 2050
7.2 Gt
CO₂e a year · BNEF base case
Article 6 Authorities
130
Countries · UNFCCC, Sep. 2026
SBTi companies
12,092
Validated targets · potential buyers
Context figures from the supplied executive summary, rather than results from the future annual report. Demand is estimated at more than 0.7 Gt a year by 2030, rising to 7.2 Gt by 2050, with an estimated market value of $180bn.
Article 6 has the institutions of a market, but no market report
Capital needs prices, volumes, deals and buyer demand before it commits. The signals of a market going live are already there: designated authorities, bilateral agreements, authorisations, transactions and rules.
The 130 countries with designated authorities are ready to develop, issue and trade Article 6 carbon credits. Companies with SBTi-validated targets are potential project developers, buyers or investors.
Questions the report answers
- What did ITMOs and Article 6.4 credits trade for, and what premium do corresponding adjustments carry?
- Who bought, and why: sovereigns, companies, airlines, funds?
- Which host countries delivered, and which stalled?
- Which credits qualify for CORSIA and EU 2040 compliance?
- Where will the next tonnes come from, by region and sector?
The report at a glance
What the report will deliver
- Core question
- Is the Article 6 market investable, and at what price?
- Lens
- Market and capital: Article 6 as a financial market
- Readers
- Buyers, banks, investors, developers, traders, airlines and host-country ministries of finance and environment
- Units of analysis
- Transactions, ITMOs and A6.4ERs, prices, buyers, sellers, pipelines
- Data
- Deal database, member price assessments, buyer and investor survey, registries and pipelines, Article 6 News
- Themes
- Volumes, prices, demand, supply, integrity and claims, finance, policy risk, 2030 and 2050 outlook
- Publisher
- Article 6 Network, an independent member-led association in Switzerland
- Cadence
- Annual, launched at each COP; Article 6 News keeps the numbers current in between
Eleven planned chapters
The supplied 2027 prospectus sets out the following planned contents.
Key findings
What changed in the year, in numbers.
Article 6 Radar
Two years of Article 6 headlines by country, mechanism and sector.
Countries
DNAs, authorisations, bilateral agreements and readiness.
Supply
Sectors, rainforest results (Art. 5.2 to 6.2) and new methodologies.
Prices and finance
Observed prices, tenders, funds and pre-finance.
Global Survey 2027
What DNAs and buyers told the Network about volumes, prices and barriers.
Outlook and recommendations
Scenarios to 2030 and policy and market recommendations.
Case studies and annex
Standalone case studies and full data tables.
Headline indicators
One scorecard, every year
Every edition opens with the same twelve indicators, so the market can be compared year on year. Baselines are set in the first edition.
| Indicator | Unit | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Article 6 Authorities | countries | Host and buyer readiness (130 as of Sep. 2026) |
| Bilateral agreements signed | count | Breadth of sovereign cooperation |
| ITMOs authorised and first-transferred | MtCO₂e | Real supply reaching the market |
| A6.4ERs issued | MtCO₂e | Output of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism |
| Contracted volume | MtCO₂e | Signed deals, delivered or not |
| Transaction value | USD | Size of the market in money |
| ITMO prices, average and range | USD/tCO₂e | Price discovery by mechanism and sector |
| Corresponding-adjustment premium | USD/tCO₂e | What buyers pay for compliance-grade units |
| Active buyers | count, by type | Depth of demand: sovereign, corporate, aviation, funds |
| Pipeline | activities, MtCO₂e | Future supply, from the UNEP CCC Article 6 Pipeline |
| Demand outlook | Gt/yr, 2030 and 2050 | From more than 0.7 Gt in 2030 to 7.2 Gt in 2050 |
| Market sentiment | index | Members’ confidence, from the annual survey |
Market data only a member network can collect
Deal database
Every reported Article 6 transaction, agreement and offtake, logged daily from Article 6 News.
Price assessments
Anonymised prices from members, buyers and sellers, published as ranges and medians.
Market survey
Buyers, banks, investors, developers and host governments on demand, prices and risks.
Registries and pipelines
UNFCCC Article 6 records, the Article 6.4 registry, the UNEP CCC Article 6 Pipeline and independent standards.
Expert review
Each chapter reviewed by a member working group from buyer and host-country sides.
Independence
No endorsement of credits or deals; member data only in aggregate; conflicted authors recuse.
Audience, format and access
Written for people who commit capital or credits
Corporate and sovereign buyers, banks and investors, project developers, traders, airlines, and host-country ministries of finance and environment.
The 2027 prospectus is available now. The second edition is planned for COP32 in Ethiopia. Members receive the report free of charge.
| Format | Content | Access |
|---|---|---|
| Executive summary | Scorecard, key findings, policy calls | Free, public |
| Full report | All eleven planned chapters, charts and country profiles | Members; on sale to non-members |
| Data annex | Deal, price and pipeline tables | Founding, Strategic and Corporate Partners |
| Launch briefing | COP side event and member webinar | Members and invited guests |
| Press release | Headline numbers | Public |
From COP31 to COP32
-
Nov 2026
First edition at COP31
Türkiye · Launch of the 2026 report.
-
Jan–May 2027
Global Survey fieldwork
Online · Supply and demand questionnaires.
-
Friday 11 June 2027
Survey results at the Article 6 Summit
Bonn · Proposed results launch; final venue to be confirmed.
-
Sep 2027
Data cut-off; drafting and review
Geneva · UNFCCC, UNEP CCC and Article 6 Radar data.
-
2027
Second edition at COP32
Ethiopia · Launch of the 2027 report.
Dates are proposed and will be confirmed with the founding members.
Sponsorship
Put your name on the reference report of the Article 6 market
Sponsors support the 2027 edition’s data systems, survey and launch, and are recognised in front of buyers, investors and governments at COP32.
Prices in CHF for 2027. Scroll horizontally to compare all benefits. A dash means the spreadsheet leaves this benefit unspecified.
| Package | Price (CHF) | Logo | Editorial | Advertisement | Report Website | Media announcement | COP32 Launch | Article 6 Summit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum Partner | 15,000 | Front page | 1 page | 1 page | Logo homepage, dedicated page | Yes | Speaker, Logo | 4 tickets |
| Gold Partner | 10,000 | Front page | 1/2 page | 1/2 page | Logo homepage, dedicated page | Yes | Speaker, Logo | 3 tickets |
| Silver Partner | 7,500 | Inside | 1/4 page | 1/4 page | Logo homepage | — | Logo | 2 ticket |
| Bronze Partner (SMEs, Startups) | 5,000 | Inside | — | 1/4 page | Logo homepage | — | — | 1 ticket |
| Government (Buyer) | 5,000 | Front page | 1 | 6 sqm | Logo homepage | Yes | — | 1 ticket |
| Editorial | 5,000 | — | 1 page | — | Logo sponsors page | — | — | 1 ticket |
| Advertising | 1,250 | — | per 1/4 page | 1 page | Logo sponsors page | — | — | 1 ticket |
Entries are reproduced as supplied. The Government (Buyer) row lists Editorial as ‘1’ and Advertisement as ‘6 sqm’; the Advertising row lists Editorial as ‘per 1/4 page’ and Advertisement as ‘1 page’. Please confirm these allocations with the Network when enquiring.
Source: Article 6 Network package spreadsheet · 2027 packages
Editorial independence
- Sponsors have no editorial input and do not see findings before the embargo lifts.
- Sponsorship has no bearing on whether a sponsor’s deals, projects or credits appear in the data or how they are described.
- Every sponsor is listed in the report with its commercial interest in the Article 6 market.
Partnership enquiry form
Sources
The supplied executive summary cites UNFCCC Article 6.4 Designated National Authorities (Sep. 2026); Article 6 Radar for Article 6 headlines since January 2025; SBTi for validated company targets; and the UNEP CCC Article 6 Pipeline. The market-size estimate and demand outlook are attributed to A6 Ratings, drawing on BNEF’s 2050 base case and Trafigura / OIES’s 2030 floor.
Publisher: Article 6 Network Association, Geneva, Switzerland.
